By Chigozie Igbo Jr
As Nigeria inches toward another general election in 2027, the political atmosphere is thick with uncertainty and speculation abounds. From the corridors of power in Abuja to the crowded markets of Kano and the coastal cities of the south, conversations about leadership, economic hardship, and political realignment dominate the national discourse, many are however of the opinion, that there is need for change to better the lives of Nigerians.
The failed coup attempt earlier may have shaken confidence in the nation’s stability, but it also exposed the undercurrents of public dissatisfaction with rising costs, deepening poverty, and disillusionment with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Now, political watchers say Nigeria is entering one of its most unpredictable pre-election seasons in decades,one where regional sentiments, economic realities, and the personalities of key opposition figures could redefine power at the center.
The North’s Political Mood: Atiku Still in the Picture
In northern Nigeria, the mood is increasingly restless. The North, long seen as the political heartbeat of Nigeria’s elections, appears to be recalibrating its loyalties.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who has contested the presidency multiple times, remains a towering figure across the region. Despite age and fatigue among parts of his base, his network within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and across northern elites still commands attention.
Atiku’s recent consultations in Sokoto, Kano, and Bauchi have fueled speculation about another run. “Atiku is not done yet,” says a northern political analyst in Kaduna. “He represents continuity of the North’s political influence at the federal level, especially after what many here perceive as the marginalization of northern interests under Tinubu.”
Beyond politics, however, there’s also a generational shift underway with younger voters in the North increasingly drawn to issue-based leadership rather than ethnic loyalty. Whether Atiku can bridge that divide remains to be seen.
Peter Obi and the Southern Reawakening
In the South and among Nigeria’s growing urban middle class, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who has been seen with the coalition party of choice, the ADC continues to embody a different kind of political energy, one that merges reformist ideals with populist frustration.
Obi’s showing in the 2023 elections, where he won key states in the South-East and parts of the South-South, and Abuja transformed him from a regional figure into a national contender. His appeal lies in his image as a disciplined, frugal leader, untainted by the excesses of traditional political elites.
Three years later, that image remains intact, and the “Obidient Movement”—though less visible on the streets—has matured into a coordinated network of civic groups and policy-driven youth coalitions.
“Obi’s real test will be in building a broader coalition beyond the South-East,” says Dr. Ifeoma Nwankwo, a political scientist in Lagos state. “He must convince northern and south-western power blocs that he represents competence and inclusion, not regional sentiment.”
Rauf Aregbesola: The Wild Card in the South-West
Perhaps the most intriguing development comes from the South-West, the home base of President Tinubu himself. Former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola, a long-time ally turned critic of Tinubu, has been reemerging as a potential rallying figure for dissatisfied progressives within the APC fold, and now in the ADC, he is hell bent to ensure that ADC emerges victorious in the 2027 presidential election.
Aregbesola’s recent grassroots mobilization in Osun, Ogun, and Oyo States has drawn attention. His calls for “a moral and economic reset” of the APC resonate with many who feel alienated by the current administration’s policies.
Political observers suggest that Aregbesola’s influence could either split the South-West vote weakening Tinubu’s base or give rise to a new alignment of progressives seeking a post-Tinubu vision for Nigeria.
Economic Hardship and Policy Fatigue
For millions of Nigerians, however, politics is no longer about personalities but about survival.
The high cost of doing business, soaring inflation, and the removal of fuel subsidies have created one of the harshest economic climates in Nigeria’s modern history.
The naira’s depreciation and the central bank’s restrictive policies have hurt small businesses, importers, and manufacturers alike. Many Nigerians now link their worsening living conditions directly to government policies rather than external factors.
“The economy has made governance a moral issue,” says Lagos-based economist Dr. Olatunde Ajayi. “People are no longer patient with rhetorics, they want results, and they want policies that work for ordinary Nigerians, not just investors.”
Amid this backdrop, the failed coup attempt earlier this year, though swiftly quashed by the military and security agencies, revealed a troubling sentiment: that discontent in the ranks mirrors the frustration in the streets.
Though Nigerians remain deeply democratic in spirit, analysts warn that political legitimacy could erode if the government fails to ease the economic strain before 2027.
Tinubu’s Challenge: Holding the Center
President Tinubu, a master political strategist, faces his greatest test, yet, keeping the APC intact while addressing mounting discontent across the regions. His government’s reforms, while ambitious, have been politically costly. The push for subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and tax expansion were designed to stabilize the economy but have instead triggered public anger and declining confidence in government.
Inside the APC, quiet divisions persist over succession politics and the direction of governance. “The APC is showing signs of internal fatigue,” says a senior party member who requested anonymity. “We may be in power, but we’re losing the narrative.”
Tinubu’s team insists that the reforms will yield long-term dividends and that short-term pain is necessary for economic rebirth. Yet, in a nation where patience is thinning, the political cost could be heavy if tangible relief does not arrive soon.
As the road to 2027 unfolds, Nigeria may be witnessing the emergence of a three-axis political contest: Atiku Abubakar, representing northern pragmatism and old-guard stability; Peter Obi, symbolizing reformist hope and southern civic resurgence; Rauf Aregbesola, a wildcard reformer from within the ruling class, potentially redrawing the South-West’s political boundaries.
Add to that a restive electorate weary of economic hardship, and the stage is set for an election that could redefine Nigeria’s political map.
Whether Tinubu can recalibrate his administration, rebuild public trust, and restore economic stability will determine if the APC can withstand the growing tide of dissatisfaction or if Nigeria, once again, is on the verge of a historic political transition.